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weaktwos ([personal profile] weaktwos) wrote2004-04-13 02:50 pm
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On the Economy

According to standard statistical methods, the economy really isn't doing as badly as one might think: http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=170

But why does everything feel so different? Why am I talking to so many people who have lost their jobs and are quitting the workforce?
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[identity profile] scottage.livejournal.com 2004-04-13 03:03 pm (UTC)(link)
Every day I pass the railroad tracks on my way to work, and I think "Hmm... maybe I should become a Hobo."

There's always openings in the lucrative Hobo market.

[identity profile] weaktwos.livejournal.com 2004-04-13 03:56 pm (UTC)(link)
Well, perfect singing King of the Road, and maybe I'll believe you. ;-p

Oh, and you'll have to perfect a solar powered gaming console, first.

[identity profile] atomicnumber51.livejournal.com 2004-04-14 09:52 am (UTC)(link)
The "misery index" isn't really a standard statistical method.

The big thing is that comtinuing long-term unemployment means people exhaust their unemployment payments, and then get excluded from the calculation of the unemployment rate. Effectively, a tech worker who hasn't worked in a year and a half and is out of ideas is treated the same way as someone in a coma, or a quadrupple amputee... not active job-seekers. The official figures say that the unemployment rate is down, but that we've lost 1.8 million jobs. How does that work, exactly?

Also, the average level of personal debt, mortgages, home equity loans, and especially credit card debt is the highest it's been, pretty much ever. The article you link shows that median family income is going down (even after taxes)... debt + reduced income = problem.

[identity profile] weaktwos.livejournal.com 2004-04-14 10:21 am (UTC)(link)
Yes, I've noticed that most folks are sweeping the figures of those who have given up looking under the rug.

But if it is true that Ricardian theories are at work and we're in a shift of our competitive advantage, are these folks in retraining or supposed to be training to shift into a different career?

I agree on the debt issues. We're in a delicate position. It's unfortunate that Kerry isn't accentuating all the issues where we really are in danger, instead of manipulating already manipulated factors.
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